The Significant Game

The Guardian published a great article today, highlighting the influence Antonio Conte had on the shift in tactics and starting formations during this and last year's Premier League seasons. Conte's Chelsea dominated the league with their 3-4-2-1 forcing other managers to revise their tactical plan. Chelsea was the first team in 53 years to win the league with a back three as their default formation. We can observe this shift when looking at the share of starting formations in Premier League matches with a back three. This share has increased significantly since Conte's arrival at Chelsea; both driven by his own choices and by other manager's trying to react. Back in the Serie A a back three is much more common and has at times been the favourite starting line-up:

While in relative little use prior to 2012, the 4-2-3-1 system has gained importance recently and has replaced 4-4-2 as the most important starting formation in the Premier League. This trend has reversed over the past two years as we see the 4-3-3 system gaining back importance and 3-4-2-1 becoming significant (leading Chelsea FC to their 2016 Premier League title).

Last week I have looked into late winners and equalizers by Premier League teams for the season 2016/17 to determine which team delivered the most last second punches. Arsenal came out on top with 9 net points won after the 85th minute which is equivalent to four late winners and an equalizer. Let's find out which team takes the lead over a longer history. My data set has information on goal timing since season 07/08 which gives us ten full seasons of last minute goals. To make sure the outcome is comparable and to not clutter the chart I have excluded teams that have not played at least five seasons in the highest league over that time frame. Tottenham takes this one home with just shy of 30 net points won after the 85th minute over the last ten seasons. Arsenal and Manchester City follow behind with 24 and 18 respectively. What stands out is that the Top 6 teams also take top spots in this ranking with the exceptions of Chelsea which is trailing behind a little. If this ...

You know the feeling. You are following the live ticker of your least favorite team (which also may be a few points above yours in the table). The finally seem to be dropping a few points against a team from the bottom. The match is already in injury time. You refresh the page faster than it can load. Then of course... they score a late winner. They always somehow do. Am I just making that up? Is it Fergie-time or Bayerndusel (for the Bundesliga followers)? Let's check which team has the most luck (or relentless spirit): Our analysis is based on a database similar to the below which shows us for every match in the season the end result and information on each goal. We will start by counting goals scored after minute 85 by each Premier League team during the season 2016/17. The threshold of minute 85 is arbitrary but think after that point in time I'll start talking about bloody luck and those again. Looking at the above plot, we can see that the two nor...