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Showing posts from January, 2019

Common football visualizations and statistics: Expected Goals

More detailed and readily available data and a thriving analytics community on Twitter have produced a series of new statistics and visualizations for football fans. In this series I will try to give a brief definition of various metrics, background on charts and sources for where to find them going forward. Expected Goals (xG) Expected goals try to evaluate the quality of chances. For every shot it assigns a value based on the historical success rate (probability of scoring) of similar shots. The value ranges between 0 and 1. Different properties of the shot can be used to assess its value: location on the pitch, was it a header or a shot, did it occur during open-play or from a free kick/corner, did the shot follow a long series of passes or a rebound. Advanced models also include defensive pressure, i.e. how are defenders positioned around the shot taker. This metric can be useful in various ways. By comparing expected goals and actual goals for a single player we can see how g